"In a way, it's yes to
all options," he said, asked if he sees the future lying with one in
particular. "The current activity will continue, but there is a limitation on
how much you can put into the sea and feed it, without collecting faeces,
fighting diseases, lice, and so on." New
versions of classic feed ingredients the way to go
We do now face limitations on what can be grown in the traditional methods of
aquaculture, and that means growth has to come from elsewhere, he said. Looking
at salmon aquaculture as one example, he noted the big companies have the
financial muscle to invest now, particularly when comparing to earlier in his
32-year stint with BioMar. "I think Norway is in a nice position, as it has
the offshore knowledge from the oil industry," he noted. "Their industry will
move forward in that direction I think. Failures there are very costly, if you
don't get it right, you have to be cautious and you need deep pockets." At the same time, he sees a bright future for
recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS). As one of the recent
predictions for 2019; Continued investor interest in this technology
would be seen. "If you want fresh salmon - and people do -
they'll pay a high price for it," Alsted observed. "In the US and Asia, China,
I think RAS will develop there. The logistics give an advantage to RAS. It'll
never be cost competitive to net cages in the open sea, but if you add the
logistics for fresh fish, it's another story." In the traditional salmon-farming nations it's
now "obvious" that the fish should be brought up to one kilogram in RAS before
being put to sea, he added, minimizing the myriad risks to the young. "When
people first introduced RAS for smolt, people were very skeptical, but of
course it works. Its science, but it's not rocket science." Again, these are big money investments and the
risk of failure in these early stages remains, but the size of the companies
which are looking at these developments means we've only just begun down the
RAS road, he said. Change coming in China
Alsted says, that he's not necessarily done in
the aquaculture sector. "I'm not after a new job, but I will work if something
interesting comes up for one or two days per week," he said. One region his advice might be welcome is
Southeast Asia and China, on which Alsted has been vocal in the past. Chinese
finfish farmers could quadruple output
"There's a real need for a change in practices
there," he said. "Feed knowhow is not the limiting factor here, water quality
is." Water gas content - and handling pathogens and chemicals in the water -
are areas of knowledge which need to be developed and rolled out across the
vast freshwater aquaculture areas. "Knowledge of how to handle that is going to be
completely necessary just to sustain production. To grow it, you have to change
practices, I'm sure of it." "You have two different developments; in the
western world technology will bring new opportunities, and in Asia it's a
matter of implementing current practices from elsewhere and getting it
running." This means education, new legal frameworks and
license-granting systems, he continued. "You can see from the Faroes, that's
probably the best example of how to manage an area in the most efficient way." "They went bankrupt, then said 'no, we must do
it better'. Everyone takes care of the common goal. Now it's incredible, it's
profitable not just thanks to [salmon] prices but because their costs are
lower." Better management doesn't necessarily require a
reduction in the number of players, he said, but needs a strong administering
of resources from a central point of view. "I was in China for a year and saw
lots of farms," said Alsted. "Structural change is needed. But if China
decides to do something they move fast. There's a need for change, but the
potential is huge - they could produce more with less. It's not a lack of
knowledge at this point, it's a lack of ability to implement." The Chinese government has begun steps towards
modernizing, he noted, pointing in particular to 2018's crackdown on
environmentally unsound operations - something which is set
to continue in 2019. "The water quality on that freshwater side is
largely hopeless. Farms are starting to close down and that will initiate a way
to show you can produce fish in a much smarter and more efficient way," he
said. "I'm sure it will come, it's a matter of when. It can't continue as it is
now, it's so inefficient." Feed firms taking the lead
There are no key aquaculture companies leading
the way in improvements in China, said Alsted. A few are taking a lead on RAS,
but mainly it is aquafeed providers which are trying to pull the industry up to
scratch - "like it was in Europe in the beginning too" - he said. "The feed firms gave advice to small family
units, which then started to grow and eventually became bigger than the feed
companies, in salmon." In China operations are still small,
family-owned units, with little knowledge of water chemistry. Knowledge is
dictated by farming experience, which works, but will not allow progress, he
noted. "In China, you don't own the land, so how can
you invest if you're only guaranteed it for a few years? You don't know if
you'll keep it at the next auction. That's what I mean by framework, there
needs to be a way to promote development." He reiterated his confidence that things will
begin moving that way soon and backed China to take what works elsewhere and
adapt it to life there. "They're good at doing that, we're already seeing it
with the offshore farms. There's certainly plenty of money there for these projects. By the start of 2019, Niels has started his own consulting company
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